A prediction or a fairy-tale?

I  came upon this prediction (amongst others) for 2009.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/114094-top-ten-tech-surprises-in-2009-low-probability-high-consequence-edition

“HP and SAP Announce Merger

In a hastily convened conference call, HP CEO Mark Hurd (HPQ) and SAP CEO Henning Kagermann (SAP) announce the merger of HP and SAP. The new company unites two giants and HP hands SAP free reign to push forward its middleware (Netweaver) and SaaS midmarket (BusinessByDesign – BBD) initiatives. SAP gives HP an enterprise applications and services business that finally crowns HP’s enterprise capabilities. Mark Hurd remains CEO as SAP’s CEO Kagermann joins the HP board and co-CEO Leo Apotheker is named COO of HP. The combined SAP-HP entity puts considerable margin pressure on IBM.”

Only a couple of thoughts on this – firstly interesting that a software company that originally emerged from IBM then joins IBM’s chief rival to compete against it, and secondly is there any smoke without a fire?

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So who is going to benefit?

A couple of days ago on this blog I remarked on Satyam and the consequences of the revelations there. Now the speculation is growing – the first question is will Satyam survive? That will be down to two factors, firstly liquidity – can it keep the bills paid? – and then if that hurdle is passed will the customers stay? Already the observers of the IT world Gartner and Forrester are suggesting courses of action to the clients, all focused on management of risk. One hopes that the clients had built this in to their business continuity plans! It does question just what level of knowledge and competence is placed externally to your organisation and how you manage that. Interestingly where outsourcing is maintained onshore within  the UK  well thought out contractual components usual include the capability to reclaim key individuals moved under TUPE.

Whatever happens there is bound to be some form of fallout – and the betting would be on two routes, either transferring to the other big Indian based suppliers of TCS, Wipro or Infosys or if concerns exist about the whole corporate governance experience in India transferring to Accenture or IBM who have big operations in India.

It’s too early to tell but what is certain is that the reverberations of this scandal will take some time to settle.